Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

Warning

This publication doesn't include Faculty of Sports Studies. It includes Faculty of Science. Official publication website can be found on muni.cz.
Authors

PÚČIK Tomáš GROENEMEIJER Pieter RÄDLER Anja T TIJSSEN Lars NIKULIN Grigory PREIN Andreas F MEIJGAARD Erik van FEALY Rowan JACOB Daniela TEICHMANN Claas

Year of publication 2017
Type Article in Periodical
Magazine / Source Journal of Climate
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Science

Citation
Web http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1
Doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1
Field Atmosphere sciences, meteorology
Keywords Buoyancy; Climate change; Convective storms; Storm environments; Climate models; Ensembles
Description The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.448. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe andwell-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100) to a historical period (1971–2000) for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index < -2 K) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase in lower-tropospheric moisture. Smaller, less robust changes were found until midcentury in the RCP8.5 scenario and in the RCP4.5 scenario.Changes in the frequency of situations with strong (> 15 m/s) deep-layer shear were found to be small and not robust, except across far northern Europe, where a decrease in shear is projected. By the end of the century, the simultaneous occurrence of latent instability, strong deep-layer shear, andmodel precipitation is simulated to increase by up to 100% across central and eastern Europe in the RCP8.5 and by 30%–50% in the RCP4.5 scenario. Until midcentury, increases in the 10%–25%range are forecast formost regions.Alarge intermodel variability is present in the ensemble and is primarily due to the uncertainties in the frequency of the occurrence of unstable environments.
Related projects:

You are running an old browser version. We recommend updating your browser to its latest version.

More info